Bihar: Why Nitish is a Must for BJP to Win 2025 Assembly Polls

Patna: Even though the top leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems hesitant to declare Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the Bihar Assembly election scheduled for October-November this year, his face is a must for the saffron party to win this crucial challenge.

Sensing this compulsion, top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have repeatedly stated that NDA will go to polls under the leadership of Kumar. Both understand the value of Kumar as the chief ministerial face despite his reported deteriorating mental health and drastic fall in his popularity, as revealed in some pre-poll surveys in the past six months.

This will be the first time in the past two-and-half decades that BJP seems reluctant to announce Kumar as NDA’s chief ministerial face.

According to political analysts here, BJP is still not in a position to take any risk of going to polls under the leadership of its own leaders . “BJP in Bihar still lacks a leader who enjoys state-wide stature and is a face to take on the Opposition. The party has no option but to depend on Nitish Kumar to woo voters because his face is still a big factor. Without projecting Nitish, BJP will face a big hurdle to counter the young and energetic RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is reportedly the first choice of people for the top post in the state, if pre-poll surveys are anything to go by,” said a political observer, requesting anonymity.

Kumar’s Janata Dal -United (JD-U), a major long-time ally of BJP, has a strong support base among non-Yadav’s OBCs (Other Backward Classes), EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) and Dalits. “BJP was defeated in the 2015 state polls when it contested minus Kumar who had shifted sides to the RJD,” said another analyst.

Several political watchers here feel that Nitish Kumar has earned the strong loyalty of EBCs, who constitute around 36.1% of the state's population, Dalitsm who are 19.65% and, above all, women -- half the state population – because of  several schemes that benefited them.

This is cited as a key reason for JD-U getting a vote share of
15-25% consistently in the state's politics despite Nitish Kumar changing sides in the past two decades.

The JD(U) secured a 16.8% vote share in the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls when it contested along with RJD, without BJP. His party's vote percentage rose to 21.81% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when it contested with BJP. But its vote share dropped to 15.39% in the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls and again rose to 18.52% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

In April this year, BJP was forced to clarify that NDA would contest polls under Kumar’s leadership after BJP leader and Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini claimed that his party would go to polls in Bihar under the leadership of Samrat Choudhary and would win the polls.

Leaders of BJP, which is the largest single party in the Assembly today, are hopeful of improving in the upcoming next polls and will decide the CM face later. "Yes, we will contest the next polls in the leadership of Nitish Kumar without projecting him as the next Chief Minister. It will be decided after polls”, said a senior party leader.

This strengthens the ongoing speculation in political circles here that BJP is eyeing to play ‘big brother’ and keen to replace Kumar with its own leader as Chief Minister.

Several sources within the BJP in Patna also admitted that the party would like to form a government in Bihar on its
own. “BJP is no longer ready to play second fiddle in Bihar. Our party has formed government on its own in all neighbouring states, except West Bengal. Now it is Bihar’s turn,” a party leader told this reporter.

It is a different matter that JD-U has been asserting that there would be no compromise on Kumar as NDA's chief ministerial face in the 2025 Assembly elections.
 

There is no denying that Nitish Kumar remains a factor in Bihar politics for his clean image. Though his own caste, Kurmi (powerful OBC) constitutes only 3% of the state’s total population, he enjoys support from other social groups. Whereas BJP lacks any leader of his stature. So, it is a political compulsion for BJP to keep Nitish with it to get support from those who will never vote for it.

Meanwhile, JD-U leaders have been repeatedly made it clear the BJP leadership in Delhi that it would contest not less than 120 of the 243 seats in the 2025 Assembly polls, and the remaining 133 seats would be divided among BJP and its other allies.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the JD-U's tally had come down to 43 and the BJP won 74 seats. Keeping this bad performance of the party in mind, which had weakened the position of Nitish Kumar in NDA, the party is gearing up to record a better performance this time.

However, the dominant view on the streets, at tea stalls, markets and residential localities in Patna is that Kumar could face anti-incumbency for being a long-serving chief minister.