Liver Cancer Could Double by 2050, But Most Cases Preventable: Experts

Liver cancer is rising fast—and experts say most cases are preventable. In a new Lancet editorial, the authors say that that nearly 60% of liver cancer cases can be avoided by tackling a few key causes: viral hepatitis, too much alcohol, and a type of fatty liver disease linked to obesity and diabetes.

These three threats—all preventable—are now responsible for most liver cancers worldwide.

A Growing Health Crisis

Liver cancer is now the sixth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer deaths in the world. In 2022, about 870,000 people developed the disease, and 760,000 died from it. The numbers are expected to get worse.

By 2050, new liver cancer cases could rise to 1.52 million, and deaths could reach 1.37 million.

The Lancet Commission on Liver Cancer has identified three main reasons why liver cancer is rising. First is Hepatitis B and C—these viruses slowly harm the liver, often without early signs. The second is alcohol, as drinking heavily or for many years puts serious stress on the liver. The third is MASLD Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease). This condition happens when fat collects in the liver, mostly in people who are overweight, diabetic, or both. These three risks often overlap. For instance, an individual with diabetes who consumes alcohol may experience a double risk. Together, these explain most liver cancer cases and show where action is needed.

 “This is one of the hardest cancers to treat. Survival rates after five years range from just 5% to 30%,” says Jian Zhou from Fudan University in China, the professor who headed the study. “Without immediate action, we will see both cases and deaths nearly double in the next 25 years,” he says in a statement related to the study.  

Breaking Down the Numbers

Today, Hepatitis B accounts for 39% of liver cancer cases globally. Hepatitis C makes up another 29%. Alcohol accounts for 19% of liver cancer cases, while MASLD accounts for 8%.

But things are changing. By 2050, alcohol-related cases may climb to 21%, and MASLD-related cases to 11%. Meanwhile, Hepatitis-related cases might drop a little, thanks to better vaccines and treatment.

The New Danger: MASLD

MASLD is now one of the fastest-growing causes of liver cancer. Earlier, it used to be called NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease).

MASLD affects nearly one-third of the world’s population. In its severe form—called MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis)—it causes liver scarring and inflammation.

People with obesity, diabetes, or heart disease are most at risk.

The Commission predicts that liver cancer caused by MASH will grow by 35% by 2050. In the US alone, over half of the adult population may have MASLD by 2040, it is feared.

“Obesity has changed the liver cancer story,” says Hashem B. El-Serag, a professor from Baylor College of Medicine. “We used to think of liver cancer as mainly caused by viruses or alcohol. But now, fat buildup in the liver is becoming a leading driver,” he says.

He recommends routine liver screening for people with obesity and diabetes, along with better diet and physical activity advice in clinics.

What Can Be Done?

The Commission says if countries act now, they can cut new liver cancer cases by up to 5% each year. That could prevent as many as 17 million cases and 15 million deaths by 2050.

To fight liver cancer, there is need to act on several fronts. First, more people—especially in Asia and Africa—must get vaccinated against Hepatitis B, say experts. Second, adults should be screened for both Hepatitis B and C so that the treatment can begin early. Controlling alcohol is also key. This means raising the minimum price of alcohol, banning false ads, and adding warning labels. People must also learn about liver cancer—what causes it and how to catch it early.

Finally, doctors need to help patients change their lifestyle and give comfort care when needed. Together, these steps can save lives.

 “There’s a lack of public understanding about liver cancer,” says Valérie Paradis from Beaujon Hospital in France, in a press statement. “Unlike many other cancers, it has clear risk factors. That means we can act early and prevent many cases,” she adds.

Why This Report Matters

This report spells out what health experts have long feared—liver cancer is no longer just about infections or alcohol. It’s now a broader lifestyle disease.

The shift to obesity and MASLD as major causes is deeply worrying, especially in countries like India, where fast-changing diets and rising alcohol use are harming younger people.

It’s also important in the West, where casual alcohol habits and weight problems are now combining to silently damage livers.

The real value of this report lies in its clarity. It doesn’t just raise alarm—it points to action. Vaccinate children and adults against Hepatitis. Screen people early, especially those at risk. Educate communities about liver health and warning signs. Make alcohol harder to access, especially for young people. And most importantly, shift our health systems. Prevention must come first—before disease sets in, not after.

These aren’t just lofty goals—they’re doable. And the benefits are huge: fewer deaths, better quality of life, and reduced healthcare costs. In India alone, liver diseases linked to alcohol cost 1.45% of the GDP every year.

The report also sends a strong message to policymakers: prevention is cheaper and far more effective than cure. Tackling liver cancer now, while the main causes are still avoidable, is not just smart healthcare—it’s beneficial economics.

The writer is a Delhi-based freelancer who writes on health issues and medical discoveries. The views are personal.