Elections 2025: Who Will Backward Communities Back in Bihar?

Bihar is just months away from going to Assembly polls. As the summer heat approaches and the political temperature rises in the Hindi heartland state, the caste census has become one of the biggest bones of contention between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition alliance -- Mahagathbandhan -- in the state.

The latest row erupted after Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said that the Bihar caste census was meant to “fool people”. Speaking at the Congress’s Samvidhan Suraksha Sammelan in Patna on January 18, he said, “We won’t do the caste census like in Bihar, which was meant to fool people. We’ll do it so it would tell us the exact share of caste groups in each field.” Gandhi stressed that his party was in favour of breaking the 50% reservation quota limit.

Rahul Gandhi’s comments triggered a political row, with his ally Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) coming forward to defend his comments saying he meant to only ask why the Bihar government’s November 2023 decision to raise the quota for various caste groups from 50% to 65% was not included in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution, which would have guarded it from legal scrutiny.

NDA leaders jumped onto the bandwagon to call out the Congress leader’s “hypocrisy” saying that Congress was part of the Mahagathbandhan government when the caste survey was conducted.

Amid all this, the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government in Bihar tabled the state’s budget in the legislative assembly on March 3. RJD leader and Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, Tejashwi Yadav, had earlier demanded that the budget be based on the findings of the caste survey.

National secretary of Congress, Tauquir Alam, slammed the NDA government saying, “The double engine government led by Nitish Kumar is only capitalising on the caste census for electoral gains. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) do not have a clear roadmap and vision on how to implement policies based on the findings of the survey.”

Tarique Anwar, state member of CPI(ML), said the caste census had sparked demands for more government jobs, educational scholarships, and economic support for the backward communities.

“Bihar has limited revenue sources and heavily depends on Central funds. Implementing large-scale welfare schemes based on caste data will require higher budgetary allocation for OBCs (Other Backward Classes) EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes), SCs (Scheduled castes) and STs (Scheduled Tribes),” he told this writer.

Poll Pitch on Caste Census

JD(U) general secretary K.C. Tyagi said that the priority Bihar got in the Union Budget 2025-26 showed how much the NDA government cared for the uplift of people who belong to the backward communities.

"The caste survey done under the leadership of Nitish Kumar exposed the structural inequality in Bihar. This year’s Union Budget has allocated significant funds for Bihar’s development. These projects will directly benefit the backward and marginalised communities in the state,” he added.

The Union government had announced several key projects for Bihar alone in the FY26 Budget, including a new makhana board, a greenfield airport, and financial aid for the Western Koshi Canal Project in the Mithilanchal region, along with plans to expand infrastructure at IIT Patna and set up a National Institute of Food Technology, Entrepreneurship, and Management in the state.

RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari applauded his party saying the caste census happened when RJD was in the government.

“Our party’s USP is social justice and secularism. But, people from the upper caste, whose population is not even near to those of the backward communities, have occupied most of the government jobs and they are the ones more visible in political representation,” he told this writer.

On October 2, 2023, the Bihar government released findings of its much-awaited caste survey which revealed that OBCs and EBCs constitute a whopping 63% of the state's total population which, as per the data, stood at 13.07 crore. The EBCs constituted 36.01% of the population and were the largest social group followed by the OBCs at 27.12%. While Dalits or the SCs stood at 19.65%, STs formed 1.68% of the population.

The survey found that Yadavs, the OBC group to which Tejashwi Yadav belongs, were the largest in terms of the population, accounting for 14.27% of the total. Those belonging to the unreserved category, which denotes the upper castes who dominated politics till the Mandal wave of the 1990s, comprise 15.52% of the total population.

Impact on Ticket Distribution

The caste census has resulted in a demand for proportionate representation of communities within the political parties in the ticket distribution for polls. The dominance of upper castes in ticket distribution is likely to decline in Bihar, with other blocks demanding their share armed with data.

In the last Assembly polls, upper castes, which form around 15% of the population, dominated ticket distribution in many parties. BJP gave 47.3% of its tickets to upper caste candidates whereas Congress gave 40% of its seats to upper castes.

The 2025 elections will not just be a battle of Mandal led by RJD vs Kamandal led by BJP, but also a test of whether Bihar’s leadership can move beyond identity politics and deliver meaningful change.

The data has not only re-ignited debates on social justice, reservation expansion, welfare schemes and economic policies but also forced political parties to navigate the complex interplay of caste arithmetic in electoral politics. Parties are gradually seeking to adjust their strategies for the sake of political gains in the upcoming Assembly election.

Will Backward Class Back BJP?

The JD(U) and RJD are leading the caste census-driven social justice narrative. Meanwhile, BJP faces a strategic challenge. Traditionally reliant on upper-caste support, the saffron party now seeks to accommodate the rising political aspirations of backward communities. The BJP's Hindutva appeal has historically overridden caste divisions, but the caste survey has revived identity-based mobilisation, posing a threat to BJP’s broad-based Hindutva politics.

BJP spokesperson Vineeta Hariharan said, “Instead of merely focusing on caste-based politics, BJP has implemented various initiatives for the welfare of backward communities through education, skill development, entrepreneurship and infrastructure development.” She further said her party believes elections should focus on governance, development and national progress rather than caste equations.

“The party’s leadership itself is a testament to its inclusive approach, with PM Modi (OBC) and President Droupadi Murmu (ST) holding the country’s top leadership positions. Bihar’s Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary (Kushwaha OBC) is another example of BJP’s commitment to social justice", she told this writer.

“BJP’s track record shows that it has done more for OBCs, Dalits, and tribals than any other party. We brought SC-ST Prevention of Atrocities Act, ensuring stricter punishments for crimes against Dalits and tribals. The NDA Govt has allocated Rs. 3 lakh crore for SC/ST welfare in the 2025-26 budget. Over 5 crore Mudra loans were provided to SC/ST entrepreneurs for business growth. BJP has empowered backward communities through governance and leadership opportunities” she added.

JD(U) Vs RJD: The EBC Vote Bank

The EBCs have been a swing factor in Bihar in several elections. They are made up of 113 castes from among the most marginalised OBCs in Bihar. The dominant EBCs include Bind, Mallah, Kewat, Nishad, Lohar, Kumhar, Sunar, Teli and Nonia. If Nitish Kumar, despite his alliance with BJP, has succeeded in getting Muslim votes, it is from this group of minorities.

The EBCs traditionally used to back the RJD led by Lalu Prasad since 1990. While Muslims and Yadavs were Lalu Prasad’s most bankable supporters, the EBCs indeed were his silent “genies”, as he used to call them. They overwhelmingly backed him till the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. However, the scenario changed dramatically after that.

After Nitish Kumar was sworn-in as Chief Minister in 2005, the EBCs were carved out of the Mandal block strategically by the JD(U). In 2006, Nitish Kumar offered the EBCs a stake in local governance, with a 20% quota in seats in three-tier local bodies, district boards, panchayat samitis and gram panchayats. He further offered financial assistance to meritorious EBC youth.

EBCs are the flavour of the election season, especially for RJD because it seeks to make a dent in JD(U)’s traditional support base. Keeping this in mind, JD(U) fielded 27 candidates from among EBCs in the last Assembly polls in 2020, while Tejashwi Yadav gave them 24 tickets.

The battle for Bihar in 2025 would boil down to who will garner EBC votes. Now that the survey numbers are in the public domain, it will also weigh on the bargaining power of smaller caste-based parties, such as Hindustani Awam Morcha or lHAM of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Viskassheel Insaan Party of VIP of Mukesh Sahni. 

How Parties Fared in Recent Polls

Bihar has a total of 40 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2024 general elections, the NDA swept the state with 30 seats, leaving only nine seats with the Opposition INDIA bloc. BJP and JD(U) won 12 each and Lok Janshakti Party won five from the NDA camp. Opposition party RJD won four, Congress three and CPI (ML) got two seats. However, RJD’s vote share stood at 22.14% with the BJP at 20.52% and JD(U) with 18.52%.

Of the 40 MPs in Bihar, half are OBCs and EBCs. Of the 13 OBC MPs, seven are from the Yadav caste. Six MPs are from the Dalit community, all from reserved seats.

In the 2020 Assembly election, which was held across 243 constituencies, the NDA won 125 seats and the Opposition INDIA bloc registered its win on 110 seats. BJP won 74 seats and its ally JD(U) won 43 seats. Meanwhile, the RJD emerged as the single largest party winning 75 seats alone. Congress could manage to win only 19 seats.

Legal Challenges to Bihar Caste Census 

The Supreme Court in July 2024 had refused to stay the Patna High Court’s decision to declare the Bihar government’s 65% reservation in educational and public employment as “unconstitutional”. The Bihar government had relied on the caste census findings to increase the reservation quota for backward communities including the SCs and the STs.

In November 2023, the Bihar Assembly passed amendments that increased reservations for EBC, OBC, SC, and ST communities from 50% to 65% in educational institutions and government jobs. With an additional 10% reservation for economically weaker sections, the total quota for reservation in Bihar stood at 75%.

On June 20, 2024, the Patna High Court had declared the amendments as unconstitutional. The High Court had found no “extenuating circumstance” where the Bihar government could breach the rule.

Those challenging the 65% quota had argued that it breached the 50% limit on reservations imposed by the 1992 judgement in Indra Sawhney vs. Union of India and by extension, violated the basic structure of the Constitution. The petitioners argued that the amendments were passed without any analysis of the data in the caste survey. They believed that the government did not consider the economic criteria, an important index on which reservation is considered. Instead, they focused on population data.

The Bihar government defended itself saying that the 50% ceiling limit was not a hard and fast rule. It can be breached in instances where there is a sufficient cause, which in this case was that the majority population in Bihar had lesser claim to positions in educational and government institutions. The government cited the survey report which stated that 85% of the population in Bihar belonged to backward communities. It submitted that it would be unfair for the 15% unreserved population to have access to 50% of seats in public education or government positions.

The National Picture

Demands for caste census have been passed in the Assemblies of Odisha, Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Telangana and Karnataka have already completed the caste surveys but haven’t released the data yet.

It remains to be seen how the caste calculus will play out in the upcoming Assembly polls and how parties will build their strategies to woo the voters, especially from the backward communities, including the SCs and the STs who will indeed prove to be the decisive factor in terms of who will sit on the Chief Minister’s chair in 2025 in Bihar.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Delhi. The views are personal.